Reducing Poverty: Track Record of Democrats vs. Republicans

Several articles in the past few years have analyzed Democratic and Republican administrations, comparing standard measures of national economic health - production, unemployment, inflation, the stock market, etc. - and standard measures of government efficiency - amount of Federal spending, number of Federal employees, deficit reduction, etc. Remarkably, by every one of these measures of economic health and government efficiency, the analyses show that Democratic administrations, on average, outperform Republican administrations. Anyone who is interested in looking at comparisons of economic performance and government efficiency during Democratic and Republican administrations should take a few minutes to read these articles; they are all interesting and short:

• Michael Kinsley
• Carol Vinzant
• Dwight Meredith (1)
• Dwight Meredith (2)

One economic measure these articles don't address is poverty. If Democratic administrations are associated with better economic conditions, as these articles indicate, then it's reasonable to expect this fact to be reflected in a greater reduction of poverty under Democratic leadership. To test this assumption, I examined the U.S. Census poverty data for the years 1961 through 2000. As Dwight Meredith noted in his articles, this period lets us compare 20 years of Democratic administrations and 20 years of Republican administrations. (The Census poverty data currently available actually runs from 1959 through 2006. However, if we include the Republican years 1959-1960 and 2001-2006 in the analysis, it makes the averages even worse for Republicans; thus the choice not to include those years in the analysis certainly does not bias the results against Republicans.)

Examining the Census data, what I found was this: during the 20 years of Republican administrations, each year on average the number of Americans living below the poverty line rose by 416,400, while during the 20 years of Democratic administrations, each year on average this number fell by 829,900. I then applied the analysis suggested in Michael Kinsley's article: I credited each year's performance to the previous year's administration. In this analysis, during the years credited to Republican administrations, the number of Americans below the poverty line rose 371,095 on average each year, while during the years credited to Democratic administrations, this number fell 845,421 on average each year.

The performance results also favor Democrats if we look at the poverty rate - the percent of the total population below the poverty line. The poverty rate fell on average 0.58 percent each year of Democratic administrations, while poverty rose on average 0.036 percent each year of Republican administrations. If we assign credit to the previous year's administration, the poverty rate fell on average 0.59 percent each year credited to Democratic administrations, and rose on average 0.012 percent each year credited to Republican administrations.

The second chart below ranks presidential administrations according to the net change in the national poverty rate that occurred during their administration (George W. Bush's first term is also included, for comparison.) We see that the poverty rate declined during all but one Democratic administration, while the poverty rate increased during all but one Republican administration. The period of recent history that saw, by far, the most dramatic poverty reduction was 1961-1969. Yet Republicans to this day deride Lyndon Johnson's "War on Poverty." What a pity for our country that one of America's great success stories - the 1960's anti-poverty effort - has been grossly mischaracterized as a failure - and that so many Americans now believe this false story about their country rather than the truth.

While it's often said that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, it does seem as if history may be a pretty good predictor of the performance of Democratic and Republican administrations. Poverty began rising under George W. Bush's administration, following eight straight years of falling rates under the Clinton administration.

Average Yearly Change in U.S. Poverty Levels, 1961-2000

Period	Average Yearly Change
	Number of People Below Poverty Line	Percent of Population Below Poverty Line (Poverty Rate)
All 40 Years	Down 206,750	Down 0.27
Democratic Administrations (20 Years) 1961-63, JFK 1964-68, LBJ 1977-80, JC 1993-00, BC	Down 829,900	Down 0.58
Republican Administrations (20 Years) 1969-74, RN 1975-76, GF 1981-88, RR 1989-92, GB	Up 416,400	Up 0.036

Change in U.S. Poverty Levels During Each Presidential Administration Since 1961,
Ordered By Reduction of Poverty Rate

Administration	Change During Administration
	Number of People Below Poverty Line	Percent of Population Below Poverty Line (Poverty Rate)
Johnson 1964-1968	Down 11,047,000	Down 6.61
Clinton 1993-2000	Down 6,433,000	Down 3.50
Kennedy 1961-1963	Down 3,415,000	Down 2.74
Nixon 1969-1974	Down 2,019,000	Down 1.69
Reagan 1981-1988	Up 2,473,000	Up 0.03
Ford 1975-1976	Up 1,605,000	Up 0.60
Carter 1977-1980	Up 4,297,000	Up 1.25
Bush II (first term) 2001-2004	Up 5,416,000	Up 1.41
Bush I 1989-1992	Up 6,269,000	Up 1.78